Prévisions
A hypothesis page for deciding which days next week deserve closer observation
PAGE ROLE
Page role
Use this page when
Use this page to decide which days next week deserve heavier logging and observation.
This page does not answer
It is not for immediate diagnosis or a final standalone conclusion.
Next step
Return to Health Forecast for immediate interpretation, or Growth Data for the longer background.
This Week
This week should be read through Dory-specific deltas first
This page starts from Dory-specific deltas in elimination, month-level events, and weather splits rather than generic dog advice.
Recent 30-day urination
12.1/day
+0.3 versus adult baseline 11.7/day
7月 vomiting-day rate
7.1%
Annual baseline 9.5%
Next-week weather split
Future weather unavailable. Showing fixed scenario branches.
Scenario cards stay visible without future weather.
7-Day Board
The next-week hypothesis board
This board matches future weather with similar historical days to show which days next week deserve closer logging. It is for setting observation priority, not for making a final claim.
Daily cards are paused, but the three scenario cards above are still available
Historical telemetry is still available, so the page falls back to fixed scenarios instead of stopping. Daily cards will resume once the weather API is back.
- History days
- 1 529
- Weather-linked days
- 1 529
- Weather branch
- Fixed 3-branch fallback
- Latest telemetry date
- 2026-07-20
This week’s three scenarios
Instead of generic common sense, these three branches show where Dory’s actual deltas live.
7月 baseline
7月 is not a “problem month,” but it is a month where small changes are worth catching early.
- 7月 vomiting-day rate is 7.1% versus an adult baseline of 9.5%
- Bark-tag rate is 43.4% versus an adult baseline of 40.1%
- Current-month baseline is 9.73 urinations and 1.78 bowel movements
What to do
- Check appetite, stool, and drool from the morning onward
- Prioritize how Dory recovers from stimulation, not just the amount of release
What to watch
- Morning-to-midday bowel pattern
- Mild vomiting or nausea signs
- Slower-than-usual recovery after outings
Sunny-led
Sunny days are not simply “easy” days. They tend to allow more movement while also increasing stimulation.
- Adult sunny days show a dog-run tag rate of 62.6% versus 44.5% on rainy days
- Bark-tag rate is 43.4% versus 34.5% on rainy days
- Baseline counts are 12.15 urinations and 1.78 bowel movements
What to do
- Grass, open space, and longer walks are valid candidates
- Plan the post-walk decompression routine as part of the outing
What to watch
- How quickly Dory settles after the walk
- Whether barking rises with stimulation
- Whether evening elimination shifts
Rain-led
In rain-led weeks, keeping indoor fallbacks ready matters more than maximizing time outside.
- Adult rainy days show a dog-run tag rate of 44.5% versus 62.6% on sunny days
- Typical counts are 11.04 urinations and 1.74 bowel movements, both slightly below sunny days
- Vomiting-day rate is 8.1% versus 10.5% on sunny days
What to do
- Do not assume access to grass or the dog run; lean on indoor scent work and short outings
- Leave room for elimination to shift later in the day
What to watch
- Whether bowel movements compress to a single time
- Whether elimination drifts later
- Whether rain-related sound changes arousal
Today’s operating plan
This converts the forecast into concrete ranges and operating points for today.
Today’s elimination forecast
9-12 urinations / 1-3 bowel movements
The range blends recent-30-day behavior, the current-month baseline, and the dominant scenario.
Morning and midday carry the highest miss cost
Walk starts lean Morning / Evening, while elimination leans Morning / Evening.
- Urination: Morning 711 / Evening 181
- Defecation: Morning 96 / Evening 26
- Walk starts: Morning 131 starts / Midday 37 starts
Even in the current-month baseline, walk starts still lean Morning / Evening.
Place recommendations come from route patterns parsed out of raw diaries
Top current-month baseline place types are Park routes / Dog-run outings.
- Park routes: Current-month baseline 85.8% / adult baseline 59.2%
- Dog-run outings: Current-month baseline 83.2% / adult baseline 54.0%
- Grass access: Current-month baseline 47.8% / adult baseline 34.1%
Recommended
- Park routes (Current-month baseline 85.8% / recent 180 days 57.2%) e.g. Yoyogi Park / park route
- Dog-run outings (Current-month baseline 83.2% / recent 180 days 40.6%) e.g. dog run plus grass / dog run
- Grass access (Current-month baseline 47.8% / recent 180 days 32.8%) e.g. grass patch
Avoid for now
- Chaining highly stimulating places together
- Assuming that simply staying out longer will solve the day
This card prioritizes the place categories Dory actually uses most often by blending the current-month baseline with the recent 180-day pattern.
Watch first
- Flat appetite
- Drool changes
- Stool irregularity
- Poor decompression after outings
- Elimination counts outside the expected range
This month, elimination and post-outing recovery deserve the highest priority.
Weight center band
3.2-3.3 kg
The last 20 weigh-ins span 3.20-3.30 kg, with an average of 3.25 kg.
Questions to review the next day
This page is meant to be checked and corrected the next day, not treated as a one-way prediction.
Check these tomorrow
- Did urination stay inside the predicted range?
- Did bowel movements still cluster in the morning or midday?
- Was post-walk recovery worse than usual?
- Did appetite, drool, or stool show small changes?
- If the forecast missed, was some factor other than weather more important?
How to use the result
- Do not only mark “hit” or “miss.” Also note which condition turned out to matter.
- On miss days, check whether visitors, deliveries, or stimulation mattered more than weather.
- Treat the result as a log that improves the next week’s reading.
Why this forecast says that
Before talking about model mechanics, this section makes clear which signals are strong enough to lead and which ones are still being held back.
Strong signals in use
The public page leads with signals that have enough data behind them.
- Elimination: 1,529 days
- Health-event days: 1,465
- Tag days: 1,529
- Walk-timing extraction: 1,387 days
- Place-category extraction: 1,451 days
- Weight days: 499
Numbers we do not headline
Activity, stress, and appetite are still secondary learning signals here.
- Activity: 0 days
- Stress: 0 days
- Appetite: 0 days
- They stay out of the public lead so that “unknown” is not mistaken for zero.
How the page branches
The forecast page does not stop even when future weather is missing.
- With future weather: show sunny, rainy, and current-month branches
- Without future weather: keep the same three branches as fixed scenarios
- Every card uses Dory-specific deltas with numbers, not generic dog advice
Supplementary
Supplementary notes from recent telemetry
This is not the main public conclusion layer. It is a secondary view that shows how recent logs are nudging the forecast interpretation.
Watch
Recent telemetry shows changes worth watching
The forecast also incorporates the latest drift and leans more conservative.
Signals
Signals currently shaping the correction
Recent telemetry note
現状維持
大きな調整はせず、いつものルーティンを保ちながら観察を続けます。
ベースラインからのズレが小さい