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A hypothesis page for deciding which days next week deserve closer observation
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Page role
Use this page when
Use this page to decide which days next week deserve heavier logging and observation.
This page does not answer
It is not for immediate diagnosis or a final standalone conclusion.
Next step
Return to Health Forecast for immediate interpretation, or Growth Data for the longer background.
This Week
Dory is currently in a higher-elimination phase
Recent 30-day urination is 13.0/day versus an adult baseline of 11.7/day. This week, it is more useful to watch for days that fall outside the expected range than to ask whether everything is merely “normal.”
Recent 30-day urination
13.0/day
+1.3 versus adult baseline 11.7/day
5月 vomiting-day rate
10.8%
Annual baseline 9.8%
Next-week weather split
Future weather unavailable. Showing fixed scenario branches.
Scenario cards stay visible without future weather.
7-Day Board
The next-week hypothesis board
This board matches future weather with similar historical days to show which days next week deserve closer logging. It is for setting observation priority, not for making a final claim.
Daily cards are paused, but the three scenario cards above are still available
Historical telemetry is still available, so the page falls back to fixed scenarios instead of stopping. Daily cards will resume once the weather API is back.
- History days
- 1 445
- Weather-linked days
- 1 445
- Weather branch
- Fixed 3-branch fallback
- Latest telemetry date
- 2026-05-13
This week’s three scenarios
Instead of generic common sense, these three branches show where Dory’s actual deltas live.
5月 baseline
5月 is not a “problem month,” but it is a month where small changes are worth catching early.
- 5月 vomiting-day rate is 10.8% versus an adult baseline of 9.8%
- Bark-tag rate is 34.9% versus an adult baseline of 43.2%
- Current-month baseline is 11.40 urinations and 1.84 bowel movements
What to do
- Check appetite, stool, and drool from the morning onward
- Prioritize how Dory recovers from stimulation, not just the amount of release
What to watch
- Morning-to-midday bowel pattern
- Mild vomiting or nausea signs
- Slower-than-usual recovery after outings
Sunny-led
Sunny days are not simply “easy” days. They tend to allow more movement while also increasing stimulation.
- Adult sunny days show a dog-run tag rate of 59.7% versus 46.8% on rainy days
- Bark-tag rate is 47.0% versus 20.1% on rainy days
- Baseline counts are 11.87 urinations and 1.82 bowel movements
What to do
- Grass, open space, and longer walks are valid candidates
- Plan the post-walk decompression routine as part of the outing
What to watch
- How quickly Dory settles after the walk
- Whether barking rises with stimulation
- Whether evening elimination shifts
Rain-led
In rain-led weeks, keeping indoor fallbacks ready matters more than maximizing time outside.
- Adult rainy days show a dog-run tag rate of 46.8% versus 59.7% on sunny days
- Typical counts are 11.26 urinations and 1.59 bowel movements, both slightly below sunny days
- Vomiting-day rate is 5.9% versus 10.6% on sunny days
What to do
- Do not assume access to grass or the dog run; lean on indoor scent work and short outings
- Leave room for elimination to shift later in the day
What to watch
- Whether bowel movements compress to a single time
- Whether elimination drifts later
- Whether rain-related sound changes arousal
Today’s operating plan
This converts the forecast into concrete ranges and operating points for today.
Today’s elimination forecast
10-13 urinations / 1-3 bowel movements
The range blends recent-30-day behavior, the current-month baseline, and the dominant scenario.
Morning and midday carry the highest miss cost
Walk starts lean Morning / Evening, while elimination leans Morning / Midday.
- Urination: Morning 574 / Midday 370
- Defecation: Morning 79 / Midday 47
- Walk starts: Morning 118 starts / Midday 62 starts
Even in the current-month baseline, walk starts still lean Morning / Evening.
Place recommendations come from route patterns parsed out of raw diaries
Top current-month baseline place types are Dog-run outings / Park routes.
- Dog-run outings: Current-month baseline 59.0% / adult baseline 55.0%
- Park routes: Current-month baseline 50.6% / adult baseline 59.6%
- Neighborhood loops: Current-month baseline 30.1% / adult baseline 21.7%
Recommended
- Dog-run outings (Current-month baseline 59.0% / recent 180 days 33.9%) e.g. dog run / dog run plus grass
- Park routes (Current-month baseline 50.6% / recent 180 days 48.3%) e.g. Yoyogi Park
- Neighborhood loops (Current-month baseline 30.1% / recent 180 days 9.4%) e.g. neighborhood loop / Yoyogi-Uehara loop
Avoid for now
- Chaining highly stimulating places together
- Assuming that simply staying out longer will solve the day
This card prioritizes the place categories Dory actually uses most often by blending the current-month baseline with the recent 180-day pattern.
Watch first
- Flat appetite
- Drool changes
- Stool irregularity
- Poor decompression after outings
- Elimination counts outside the expected range
Vomiting watch also deserves a little extra weight this month.
Weight center band
3.0-3.2 kg
The last 20 weigh-ins span 2.95-3.30 kg, with an average of 3.12 kg.
Questions to review the next day
This page is meant to be checked and corrected the next day, not treated as a one-way prediction.
Check these tomorrow
- Did urination stay inside the predicted range?
- Did bowel movements still cluster in the morning or midday?
- Was post-walk recovery worse than usual?
- Did appetite, drool, or stool show small changes?
- If the forecast missed, was some factor other than weather more important?
How to use the result
- Do not only mark “hit” or “miss.” Also note which condition turned out to matter.
- On miss days, check whether visitors, deliveries, or stimulation mattered more than weather.
- Treat the result as a log that improves the next week’s reading.
Why this forecast says that
Before talking about model mechanics, this section makes clear which signals are strong enough to lead and which ones are still being held back.
Strong signals in use
The public page leads with signals that have enough data behind them.
- Elimination: 1,445 days
- Health-event days: 1,381
- Tag days: 1,445
- Walk-timing extraction: 1,311 days
- Place-category extraction: 1,376 days
- Weight days: 484
Numbers we do not headline
Activity, stress, and appetite are still secondary learning signals here.
- Activity: 1,445 days
- Stress: 1,445 days
- Appetite: 1,445 days
- They stay out of the public lead so that “unknown” is not mistaken for zero.
How the page branches
The forecast page does not stop even when future weather is missing.
- With future weather: show sunny, rainy, and current-month branches
- Without future weather: keep the same three branches as fixed scenarios
- Every card uses Dory-specific deltas with numbers, not generic dog advice
Supplementary
Supplementary notes from recent telemetry
This is not the main public conclusion layer. It is a secondary view that shows how recent logs are nudging the forecast interpretation.
Watch
Recent telemetry shows changes worth watching
The forecast also incorporates the latest drift and leans more conservative.
Signals
Signals currently shaping the correction
Recent telemetry note
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